AI Survey Reveals Surprising Perspective on Future Threats to Humanity

Artificial Intelligence: A Less Dire Future than Predicted

Despite the recent warning signs and concerns raised by industry leaders about the existential threat of artificial intelligence (AI) to humanity, a new survey of over 2,700 AI experts paints a less dire picture of the future. The AI Impacts survey, conducted with the assistance of researchers from the Universities of Oxford, Berkeley, and Bonn, sought to gather insights from AI researchers regarding the pace of progress in the field and the potential impact of advanced AI systems. While a wide range of perspectives were compiled, only around 5% of respondents felt that there was a high chance of human extinction from AI. This contrasts sharply with the sentiments of the general public, as an August 2023 poll found that 61% of Americans see AI as a threat to humanity.

Industry leaders, who signed a Center for AI Safety letter, expressed concerns about the risk of extinction from AI and called for global prioritization in mitigating this risk. Paul Christiano, former chief of alignment at OpenAI, estimated a 50% chance of AI ending in catastrophe, placing it on par with nuclear war or a global pandemic. However, despite these widely covered pessimistic predictions, AI continues to evolve and companies are actively racing to develop more advanced systems. OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, advocates for regulations alongside a push to test the boundaries of AI technology.

In terms of AI capabilities, the survey revealed that many respondents predicted significant creative milestones within the next 10 years. For example, AI coding an entire payment website from scratch or creating songs indistinguishable from today's hits. However, challenges such as mathematical theorem proving are expected to take longer to achieve. Notably, the possibility of High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) becoming a reality has been pulled 13 years closer, with a 50% probability of success predicted by 2047. Similarly, the Full Automation of Labor (FAOL) horizon, a controversial prediction made by Elon Musk, has shifted 48 years earlier.

While concerns about the potential risks of AI persist, it is important to consider the insights provided by AI experts in this survey. Their perspectives suggest that the future of AI may not be as bleak as some have predicted. As AI continues to advance, it is crucial for policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers to work together to ensure the safe and responsible development and deployment of AI systems. By addressing concerns and implementing appropriate regulations, we can foster an environment where the benefits of AI can be harnessed while mitigating potential risks.