d, "That's a good sign because they're not rejecting them outright. They're actually engaging with the issuers and working through any concerns or questions they may have." Balchunas also mentioned that the SEC is likely to take its time with the decision, as they want to thoroughly evaluate the applications and ensure investor protection.
The increased estimation of a 95% likelihood for a spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January is significant, especially considering the previous estimation of 90%. It suggests that there is growing optimism among analysts that the SEC may finally give the green light to a Bitcoin ETF. This would be a major development for the cryptocurrency market, as it would open up a new avenue for institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin.
However, it's important to note that there are still potential obstacles that could prevent the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. The unlikely scenarios outlined by James Seyffart of Bloomberg Intelligence highlight some of these obstacles, including the possibility of Ark Invest withdrawing its application or the SEC chair denying the applications using new reasons. Additionally, the Biden administration could take action to prevent the approval of a Bitcoin ETF.
The cautious approach taken by participants in the crypto betting market Polymarket, who currently place the odds of approval at 82%, indicates that there is still some uncertainty surrounding the decision. It's possible that market participants are taking into account the potential obstacles and remaining cautious in their predictions.
In the meantime, Bitcoin ETF hopefuls have until Monday morning to submit any last-minute revisions to their applications. The SEC has an open window until January 10 to approve multiple applications simultaneously. The first stage in the approval process would be the SEC signing off on the 19b-4 filings by the exchanges planning to list the ETFs. Once the exchanges receive approval, the SEC would then need to approve the issuers' S-1 applications. If both stages are approved, the ETFs could technically begin trading the next business day.
Overall, the increased estimation for the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January is a positive development for the cryptocurrency market. However, there are still potential obstacles that could prevent the approval, and market participants remain cautious in their predictions. The coming days will be crucial as the SEC makes its decision, and investors and enthusiasts alike will be eagerly awaiting the outcome.
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